Model Assumptions
$11.35M total
$81.4M / 5yr
$12.0M
750K customers
$399 / test
$299 / test
Commercial launch Year 2
$150 / test
Phase 2 (Nomic) scales proportionally
$450K / mo
Ongoing team + commercial ops after R&D phase
Total Budget (24-mo)
$11.4M
Mid scenario
5-Year Revenue
$81.4M
Self-pay only
5-Year Gross Profit
$30.5M
37.5% blended margin
Cash Runway
42 mo
From $12M raised
Break-Even Month
Mo 28
Revenue covers ongoing costs
Capital Gap / Surplus
+$0.6M
vs. mid budget scenario
Cash Runway & Projections
Cash Position Over Time
Monthly cash balance = capital raised − cumulative budget burn + cumulative gross profit
Revenue & P&L Projections
Annual Revenue & Gross Profit
5-year self-pay projection (payer reimbursement not modeled)
Volume & Unit Economics
Annual test volume with gross margin % overlay
Cost Structure per Test
Variable cost breakdown by component
Cumulative Gross Profit
Running total vs. total budget spend
Revenue Mix by Source
23andMe funnel vs. independent acquisition
Budget Breakdown (24-Month)
Budget by Category
Low / High range with midpoint allocation
Spend Detail
Line-item breakdown with low–high ranges
| Category | Low | High | Range |
|---|
Scenario Comparison
Key Milestones
Model Assumptions & Caveats
- All revenue projections are self-pay only. Payer reimbursement (Year 4+) would significantly increase volume but is not modeled.
- 23andMe addressable pool (~750K) is a conservative estimate from ~12M genotyped customers with high PRS scores or smoking history.
- Conversion rates have no direct precedent — independent acquisition volume and CAC are placeholders pending go-to-market strategy finalization.
- COGS trajectory assumes successful Olink volume negotiations and Nomic platform validation by end of Year 3.
- Budget assumes TTAM provides G&A, marketing, UX, and computational infrastructure in-kind (to be confirmed).
- Post-24-month ongoing operational costs modeled at ~$250K/month. Actual costs will depend on team size and commercialization pace.